Oddsmakers Like Gotye, Katy Perry, Justin Bieber to Win Big at VMAs

What’s an award show without a little high-stakes gambling, right? Tonight probably won’t need much more suspense, what with Chris Brown, Drake and Rihanna all likely in attendance, but in case you need the extra juice, betting sites Bovada and Ladbrokes have both laid odds on the major VMA categories. Both have Katy Perry and Justin Bieber taking home Best Female and Best Male video, respectively (though wouldn’t it be a lark if they switched!), while nearly every other award is a split decision—including Video of the Year, for which Bovada pegs Gotye as the likely winner, while Ladbrokes has Perry again with the best odds.

Given the choice, we’d side with Bovada on that one—we can’t see Perry winning two years in a row, especially with a video as non-momentous as “Firework”—though we think they’re underselling Rihanna’s chances of winning with “We Found Love.” Childish Gambino’s “Heartbeat” probably won’t take home Best Hip-Hop Video, though, we’re all fairly agreed on that.

Here are the listed odds for both sites, courtesy of MTV:

Video of the Year

Bovada’s Take: “This is a three-way race with Gotye having the slight edge,” Bradley said. “Of course, both Katy Perry and Rihanna have won this award before …”

» Gotye, “Somebody That I Used to Know,” 11/10

» Katy Perry, “Wide Awake,” 11/5

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 12/5

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 19/2

» M.I.A., “Bad Girls,” 25/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Katy Perry, “Wide Awake,” 2/1

» Gotye, “Somebody That I Used to Know,” 3/1

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 7/2

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 7/2

» M.I.A., “Bad Girls,” 5/1

Best New Artist

Bovada’s Take: “We have Carly Rae Jepsen a clear favorite here,” Bradley said. “We already have taken quite a bit of money on her and can only see her [odds] going higher, if anything.”

» Carly Rae Jepsen, “Call Me Maybe,” 1/2

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 3/1

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 8/1

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 13/2

» The Wanted, “Glad You Came,” 18/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 1/7

» Carly Rae Jepsen, “Call Me Maybe,” 10/1

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 10/1

» The Wanted, “Glad You Came,” 12/1

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 14/1

Best Pop Video

Bovada’s Take: “We have Justin Bieber with a slight edge over One Direction here,” Bradley said. “But our sharp entertainment bettors did throw a few bucks on ‘We Are Young.’ ”

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 7/5

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 19/10

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 8/1

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 11/4

» Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa, “Payphone,” 15/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 4/6

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 11/8

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 16/1

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 16/1

» Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa, “Payphone,” 20/1

Best Hip-Hop Video

Bovada’s Take: “We have ‘Heartbeat’ at 25-1, the biggest long shot in any category,” Bradley said. “We just cannot see this having any type of chance, but you never know.”

» Nicki Minaj feat. 2 Chainz, “Beez in the Trap,” 5/6

» The Throne, “Paris,” 2/1

» Drake feat. Lil Wayne, “HYFR,” 7/1

» Kanye West feat. Pusha T, Big Sean and 2 Chainz, “Mercy,” 5/1

» Childish Gambino, “Heartbeat,” 25/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Nicki Minaj feat. 2 Chainz, “Beez in the Trap,” 5/4

» Kanye West feat. Pusha T, Big Sean and 2 Chainz, “Mercy,” 2/1

» Drake feat. Lil Wayne, “HYFR,” 4/1

» Childish Gambino, “Heartbeat,” 7/1

» The Throne, “Paris,” 7/1

Best Rock Video

Bovada’s Take: “Best Rock Video always seems the toughest to handicap,” Bradley said. “But we feel Coldplay is the right favorite here.”

» Coldplay, “Paradise,” 5/7

» The Black Keys, “Lonely Boy,” 11/5

» Linkin Park, “BURN IT DOWN,” 8/1

» Jack White, “Sixteen Saltines,” 13/2

» Imagine Dragons, “It’s Time,” 15/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Linkin Park, “BURN IT DOWN,” 7/4

» Coldplay, “Paradise,” 9/4

» The Black Keys, “Lonely Boy,” 5/2

» Jack White, “Sixteen Saltines,” 5/1

» Imagine Dragons, “It’s Time,” 7/1

Best Male Video

Bovada’s Take: “The second category where we have Bieber as the favorite,” Bradley said, “but the long shot, Chris Brown, has been appealing to some bettors so far.”

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 4/5

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 11/5

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 21/4

» Usher, “Climax,” 9/1

» Chris Brown, “Turn Up the Music,” 12/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 1/6

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 8/1

» Usher, “Climax,” 8/1

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 12/1

» Chris Brown, “Turn Up the Music,” 20/1

Best Female Video

Bovada’s Take: “It was difficult to decide who should be the front-runner here, and we essentially have Katy Perry and Rihanna in a dead heat,” Bradley said. “No money has really come in on anyone but them.”

» Katy Perry, “Part of Me,” 1/1

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 11/10

» Beyoncé, “Love on Top,” 10/1

» Selena Gomez and the Scene, “Love You Like a Love Song,” 12/1

» Nicki Minaj, “Starships,” 15/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Katy Perry, “Part of Me,” 6/4

» Nicki Minaj, “Starships,” 2/1

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 9/2

» Beyoncé, “Love on Top,” 9/2

» Selena Gomez and the Scene, “Love You Like a Love Song,” 6/1

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